Dr. Nejat Tamzok
The Paris has failed.
The agreement, signed in 2015, aimed to prevent global warming. To do this, the main goal was to limit the average temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, and almost all countries have signed up to strive for 1.5 degrees.
We don’t know about August yet, but in July, global temperatures broke all-time records and rose to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
According to the statements made by the United Nations, these measurements are exceptions and the actual 1.5 degree limit will be reached in the early 2030s. But if you ask anyone in Türkiye in this August, when record temperatures are experienced, they will say that extreme weather events know no limit.
Frankly, the Paris Agreement was a quite soft arrangement; it was only politely asking countries not to use fossil fuels.
So, what happened, do you think, could fossil fuel consumption be reduced a bit?
Of course, there is no decrease: In the 8 years after Paris, world fossil fuel consumption increased by 9 percent compared to the 8 years before Paris. The increase in oil was 7.5%, in gas 20%, and in coal 2.5%.
Moreover, these increases occurred despite the limiting effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on energy consumption in the post-agreement period and the rising energy prices due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis after the pandemic. If these developments had not occurred, who knows what levels fossil fuel consumption would have reached.
As a result, the share of fossil fuels in global consumption was 85% before Paris, but today it has only been reduced to 82%. However, this decline is largely due to developments in the European Union. In the other part of the world outside the Union, the share of fossil fuels in consumption continued to increase.
Is Türkiye different from the world?
If we look at the numbers, it doesn’t look like it.
Türkiye, despite not being an important fossil fuel producer, is among the countries that have increased its consumption the most recently. Comparing the 8 years before and after Paris, Türkiye’s increase in fossil fuel consumption is about 30%, which is three times more than the global increase. The increase in oil consumption has been about 40%, and in natural gas and coal, it has been above 20%.
The share of fossil fuels in Türkiye’s energy consumption was 86% before Paris, but today it is still at 81%, despite all the developments in renewable investments. Türkiye, which is not lucky in terms of oil, gas or coal reserves, but has a solar and wind potential far above the world average, should have been able to reduce its share of fossil fuel consumption to at least 70%, which is the EU average.
In conclusion, looking at the developments in fossil fuel consumption, it would be excessive optimism, in my opinion, to expect the Paris Agreement to save the world.
Amasra/August 2023