Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Turkey and Iraq, two neighboring countries, have many problems.
Chief among these are the PKK’s presence in Iraq and the conflicts over water. Turkey wants Iraq to end the PKK’s presence on its territory, while Iraq demands that more water be released from the Tigris and Euphrates.
Effective solutions to these problems, which have been going on for years, have not been found so far.
Another problem that has arisen in recent times is related to the transit of Iraqi oil through Turkey.
In 2014, Iraq filed a lawsuit with the International Chamber of Commerce, alleging that Turkey was exporting oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government without the permission of the Baghdad. Following the arbitration decision, oil exports through the pipeline between Northern Iraq and Turkey were stopped in March of this year.
It was reported in the press that Turkey was ordered to pay $1.5 billion in compensation to Baghdad, but the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey announced that both sides had accepted and rejected demands, and therefore both sides would pay compensation.
Afterwards, the negotiations between the Iraqi and Turkish delegations regarding the continuation of exports since March did not yield any results.
IRAQI OIL MINISTER IS IN ANKARA
Following all these developments, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani came to Ankara at the beginning of the week to discuss the resumption of oil exports from Northern Iraq to the Ceyhan terminal. It is expected that Abdel-Ghani will meet with the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, to negotiate the subject of the case and to bring solutions to the obstacles that delay exports.
The meeting and the agreement reached are seen as important on the Iraqi side, whose economy is almost entirely based on oil revenues. In fact, this issue is important not only for Iraq but also for international markets. Indeed, even the news of the negotiations could lead to a pause in oil prices.
FOREIGN MINISTER FİDAN IS IN IRAQ
On the other hand, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is making an official visit to Iraq on August 22-24. Fidan will meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammed Şiya es-Sudani in Baghdad and the Northern Iraq administration in Erbil.
After that, President Erdoğan is expected to visit Iraq.
It is clear that these visits will be seen as an important opportunity for Turkey, which is rapidly improving its relations with the Gulf countries, in the development of its relations with Iraq. Therefore, it is likely that important steps will be taken on the continuation of oil flows during Fidan’s visit.
However, developments may not be limited to this and we can expect new ones.
A ROAD PROJECT FROM IRAQ
At the beginning of the possible developments are the decisions to be taken regarding the Development Road Project of Iraq. With this project, which came to the agenda again during the Iraqi Prime Minister’s visit to Turkey in the past days, it is planned to build highway and railway lines that will extend from the Persian Gulf to the Turkish border. With this project, it is envisaged that not only Iraq but also other Gulf countries will be directly connected to Europe.
In addition to the Gulf energy resources, it is thought that Southeast Asian trade goods will be transported to Europe at a much lower cost via this road instead of the Suez Canal. Such a project has the potential to significantly affect not only the geopolitics of the Gulf but also the global balances.
At this point, Turkey’s position is, of course, extremely important. This project, which President Erdoğan said he had tasked his ministers to implement, will be at the top of the topics to be discussed during Fidan’s visit, and the possible partnership in the project will have a primary impact on the course of relations between the two countries.
We will wait and see together to what extent Turkey will be involved in this project, which I think, has a very high potential to create new problems as well as the degree of difficulty in its construction.
Amasra/August 2023