Dr. Nejat Tamzok
In a statement made by the Kremlin about a week before the Wagner revolt, it was stated that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan invited Putin to Türkiye and that preparations for his visit were being made, but the exact date had not been determined yet.
This announcement was significant in that it heralded Putin’s first visit to a NATO country after the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
What made the visit interesting for the media was its legal dimension: The International Criminal Court had issued an arrest warrant for Putin last March for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, so he could face the risk of being arrested if he travels abroad.
Since Ankara is not a party to the agreement establishing the said court, there is no risk of Putin facing such a situation in Türkiye. Furthermore, Putin will have the opportunity to undermine the credibility of the court’s decision through this visit. Therefore, the fact that Türkiye, which does not stand by its Western allies in economic sanctions against Russia, offers Putin a comfortable visit on its own soil will undoubtedly raise eyebrows among NATO members.
What particularly caught my attention were the subsequent statements made right after the Kremlin’s announcement.
The first one came from Russia’s natural gas giant Gazprom. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Gazprom Chairman Alexey Miller stated that all preliminary talks had been held for the establishment of a gas hub in Türkiye, and they were ready to start negotiations.
The project to establish a gas hub in Türkiye, which has been occasionally mentioned by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is supported by Putin, who has lost hope in the Nord Stream 2 project, and is frequently brought to the agenda by the Russian Ministry of Energy.
Before the possible Putin visit, this issue was once again emphasized firsthand.
The next statement was about nuclear energy: Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant Deputy Chairman Anton Dedusenko stated that if Türkiye has a request regarding the Sinop Nuclear Power Plant Project, Russia’s nuclear energy giant Rosatom is ready to meet it.
It is understood that these statements were made for the purpose of preliminary preparation for the issues that will come to the agenda during the visit.
Russia’s desire to establish a gas hub in Türkiye can be interpreted as an intention to enter the European market, from which it is rapidly losing ground, through a backdoor. Within this framework, we can foresee that not only Russian gas but also Azeri and Turkmen gas will be on the agenda, and Russia may seek to establish a partnership with Türkiye for this purpose. Therefore, although the claims that Türkiye’s gas company BOTAŞ will be acquired by Gazprom were denied by both organizations in recent days, it is possible that new partnership structures or formulations will be considered.
On the other hand, considering the fact that no investor has been found for the second nuclear power plant planned to be built in Sinop for a long time, I see a high possibility of transferring the Akkuyu experience to Sinop. Therefore, it will not be a surprise that Türkiye and Russia have started negotiations on the construction of a nuclear power plant there in the near future.
It is clear that Russia is eager to develop energy cooperation with Türkiye, as it is with China. Putin, who wants to show that he is not alone in the international arena and aims to increase his declining energy revenues through different means, needs Türkiye. This fact can also be understood from the open support he gave to the current administration of Türkiye during the elections.
After the Wagner uprising, it seems unlikely that Putin’s visit will take place in the near future. However, when the visit planning resumes, similar statements from Russia will likely be brought up again. Moreover, it would not be surprising if Putin, who is increasingly feeling the impact of the West’s embargo and not receiving the expected support from China, comes to the table with more creative projects regarding Türkiye than the aforementioned ones.
Amasra / July 2023